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Short answer: Roughly 360 million square feet of new storage was delivered nationally from 2020 to 2026, far more than population growth alone would absorb, and a slow housing market has muted a traditional demand driver. New construction is now slowing. Mark believes smaller investors with realistic projections and patient, long-term capital are well placed.
What’s weighing on demand #
- Oversupply. Deliveries peaked around 2023 and are forecast to keep declining through 2028 as construction starts fall. Occupancy has come down from pandemic highs and street rates have been under pressure in heavily built Sun Belt markets.
- Housing. High mortgage rates, stretched affordability and owners “locked in” to low-rate mortgages mean fewer moves, historically a major storage driver.
- Uncertainty. Rapid, unpredictable policy and economic changes make the market harder to read, and many buyers have moved to the sidelines.
Most analysts expect supply and demand to come into better balance through 2027–2028 if demand holds steady.
Where Mark sees opportunity #
- Buyers are no longer paying for future value; pricing is based mostly on current web rates.
- He favors high-barrier markets and smaller additions of space, given uncertain lease-up times.
- He is forming more partnerships and joint ventures with patient capital that can wait 7 to 10 years, rather than chasing fast early returns.
Industry figures are approximate and change; verify current data for any specific market.
Related answers #
- Why is Mark cautious about self-storage funds?
- Is square foot per capita a reliable measure of self-storage demand?
- What trends are shaping the future of self-storage?
Source: Mark’s post Why the Smaller Investor Can Win in Today’s Self-Storage Market
