Short answer: Higher rates raise loan payments and shrink how much lenders will lend. Mark watches jobs reports, inflation (CPI) reports and especially the long-term Treasury bond market to judge where rates may head, because the cost of money affects nearly every deal.^[1][2]

Why rates matter so much #

• Loan size. Lenders size loans by debt coverage, so a higher rate means a smaller loan for the same NOI and more cash required.^[1]
• Timing. A deal underwritten at today’s rate may need re-underwriting if rates rise before key steps are complete.^[2]

What Mark watches #

• Jobs reports. A weakening labor market has historically pushed the Federal Reserve toward holding or cutting rates.^[2]
• Inflation (CPI). The Fed weighs jobs data alongside inflation.^[2]
• The bond market. Mark calls it “the adult in the room.” If long-term Treasury yields don’t fall after good inflation news, the market may be pricing in other pressures, such as the amount of government borrowing ahead, that keep long-term rates elevated regardless of Fed decisions.^[2]

Mark is clear that he isn’t an economist; this is how he reads the signals for his own business planning.^[2] Specific conditions change quickly, so check current data and talk with your lender.

Related answers #

• How much money do you need to get into self-storage today, and how does debt coverage affect it?
• What is a cap rate, and why is it so often misunderstood in self-storage?
• Is self-storage oversupplied, and where is the opportunity for smaller investors?

Sources #

Each numbered note above links to the post of Mark’s it comes from.

1. How Much Money Do You Really Need to Start in Self-Storage?, Mark Helm, October 17, 2025
2. What the Jobs Report, CPI, and Bond Market May Be Telling Us About Interest Rates, Mark Helm, August 14, 2026